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the stock market's in anticipation that the Fed's done now and everything's good. I don't believe that. The Fed has said they want a 2% inflation rate. Core is still at 4%. Again, the CPI number, I think, was, you know, it's a short-term aberration because of energy. Energy prices coming down. Everything else is still very high. The other big factor that I don't know why people are ignoring it in the business news press, but you still got a lot of wage problems or wage issues out there relative to inflation. Now, it's good news for the workers. There's been a lot of strikes and a lot of settlements that have produced some very good wages, very nice wage increases, but that is inflationary, and that's continuing, and they don't take those raises back. So that's still out there. So I still think you've got what they call wage push inflation, and I still think you've got energy issues going to impact the inflation numbers again the rest of the way down, the rest of the year, certainly. And so I think in December, you'll see the Fed sit still. They probably won't do anything. They've kind of telegraphed that. They're going to wait and see if, you know, there's a lag effect to what they do, so they're going to wait and see how some of these rapid increases have impacted the market. But my bet is that sometime in early 2024, we see at least one more rate hike and maybe two. But I hope I'm wrong. You know, I hope this equity rally is for real and sticks this time, but I'm kind of, I'm in the iffy camp on it right now, but we'll see how it goes. But if you look at the markets on the at the end of the quarter on page two of your report,
that's the bond market on the top, and you can see on the left hand side of the top of page three, that was also negative for the quarter. So you had a rising interest rate environment a little bit rates ticked up during the quarter.
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rather dramatically. And right now, the 10 years at about four and a half, where it was just at five, you know, not that long ago. Again, I don't know how permanent that is. Given some of the things I just mentioned, I think the Fed has another rate hike or two in there. So I think we'll see them ticking back up. They already have started to take up just a little
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I'm going to skip on over to this is your fiscal year that we didn't identify. If you go to page eight, there's a few things there that we have as a compliance. In addition to that, there's other things in your investment policy. We did not identify any compliance issues. So at the end of your fiscal year, everything is in compliance, which is obviously where we want to be. If you go to page nine, I'll touch briefly on the quarter here, but then I'll go through performance on a different page. But you can see for the quarter, there was a net outflow of money of 222,000. The loss for the portfolio was about 1.26
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we're that was about a minus three and a half percent return for the quarter. And which is again, very disappointing. We hope we could sneak out a really good fiscal year, your fiscal year. This is net of ‸ fees is 8.8%. So again, we'll go through this. And again, in just a second,
little bit. I mean, basically on target with domestic equity. When you add that in the global infrastructure, a little underweighted convertibles, we are underweighted have taken a position to be a little underweighted in international. I think that's going to be very helpful. The real estate. We're still we're in the queue, as I think you're aware, fully in the queue for one of your managers bearings.
residential mortgage activity has really picked up here ‸ the last week, week and a half because of this drop in rates. So even if it's short term, apparently people ‸ sitting on the sidelines ready to go when rates do drop. So maybe we'll see activity pick up a little bit. ‸ We can get our money a little bit quicker out of the real estate fund.
You're about if you add it all up, including the cash, you're at about 24% versus the target of 25. So we're going to shift a little. I'm going to recommend shifting a little bit around within that category. But I'll get to that in just a second.
You certainly cannot argue this is not a well diversified portfolio. Whether that pays off or not is another question, but you are very well diversified. So when we look at the numbers then on page 14 and see the rankings, you know, it's very disappointing to see what's happened here. And when you see the quarter ranking in the 87th percentile, the one year 80th percentile and just a little bit below the benchmarks in each of those. So if you go back just as recently as 18 months to two years ago and look at your reports, there's nothing like that. You know, no numbers really like this. Everything was pretty good. So what's happened and and I actually made some notes for this quarter because I couldn't believe some of the stats I was seeing. And, you
it's different. It's always different. You know, the markets never stay the same. But what really does feel strange this time is how volatile the markets have been the last couple of years and some of the actions taken by the Fed and just the reaction of the markets.
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that have absolutely dominated the market like we've never seen before in terms of the concentration. And I actually had a little bit a couple of stats I just share with you.
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Now, remember, the S&P 500 is a capitalization weighted index. So the bigger stocks have a bigger impact on the performance and, you know, waiting the waiting in the in the S&P.
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flat. Last time I remember seeing numbers anywhere near that was in the late 90s during the dot com era. So I kind of replaced dot com right now with AI artificial intelligence because that's what's driving most of these. Most of these chip makers have really done well because of AI.
the late 90s didn't have any any earnings. A lot of them didn't even have any income, but yet they were getting a valuation. Well, these companies are going to be
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They're pretty pricey. They've got a they've really priced them to absolute perfection that nothing's going to go wrong. So I think what you'll see in the market really is a is a rotation. I don't think the market's going to necessarily crash because I do think we're we're close to a peak in rates if we're not already there. And that'll help the stock market. But I do think it's very reasonable to expect a rotation out of those seven a little bit. They may underperform the S&P 493,
these valuations right now. There's a lot of cheaper stocks in the 493 space than in that Mag seven. But, you know, they've done well. They're continuing to do well. They're great companies.
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yesterday. If your managers active manager just picked one or decided back at the beginning of the year that NVIDIA was just a little too pricey, didn't want to go there. That decision alone could cost
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So, you know, when you get to that kind of a concentrated market, it's very hard for active managers to to outperform. And that's sort of what's hit us here a little bit. You've got some index exposure that helped you. But the active managers are really struggling in this kind of a market.
late 90s and 2000. And I know that's 23 years ago now, almost 24. But if it's anything like that, we saw a dramatic turn in 2000 from what they call the growth stocks to the value stocks. Well, back then, the peak I remember was growth was outperforming value in the in the marketplace by maybe I want to say
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So it is really out of whack. And I think when it gets like that, you've got to stay patient, especially in times like this. Stay patient with managers. It's a bad time to try and change managers or, you know, it's really a hard time to evaluate them when it gets that concentrated.
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a lot of turmoil in the markets and a whole lot of volatility that we we're not used to seeing. So those rankings are a little disappointing. Those are not long term problems. Those are what's happened in the last couple of years. And that's why I think it's it's a good idea to stay pretty patient with these. Most of your managers as you look here.
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I don't know how much detail you'd like to go into. But again, I'm not recommending changing any management. We are going to recommend switching some money around. Maybe I'll do that right now.
Look at pages 11 and 12. ‸ What we're recommending you do is. We're going to we think bonds are close to a peak. Now, that doesn't mean they have peak, but they're close. Right. So it makes sense. I think in this environment to extend your maturities just a little bit.
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get some very good returns out of the bond market. They're relevant again. Bonds haven't been relevant for a lot of years and they are now. So what we're suggesting you do, there's two areas where I think we could lower our exposure a little bit because of the higher rate environment.
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Yeah. The rest is just moving the money from shorter term bonds to a little bit longer maturity structure. ‸ See if we can't get a little bit of goose from falling interest rates next year.
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Utilities typically pay a little higher dividend. But when ‸ competition for the money with rates going up as fast as they have. And as high as they have the competition for the ‸ money kind of hurt them a little bit. So. I think it makes sense to
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think the only other chart I just ended on is page 22. And you know I talk about what's happened in the last couple ‸ years. And it's all just kind of backed up by the volatility.
see on the left hand side of that page. To have this many managers. This diversified. You know best in class kind of managers. Plus some good index funds. Be that well diversified. And see that kind of volatility that we've seen since 2021. Is just. It's unprecedented. So. Stay patient.
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bit here in the next few quarters. And bond rates. As we sit here a year from now I think bond rates will be lower. ‸ Next couple of quarters. I'm not betting on that right now. But I think it's still a good time to go ahead and start inching that way.
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places has been you know with this higher rate environment again. Remember how fast this has happened from zero to five or whatever you know in this higher rate environment. Is it is it I don't know maybe the best way to word is it worth the risk to go into some of these other asset classes? And if so.
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We've got some you know other alternatives infrastructure. I don't really consider infrastructure ‸ alternative. It's kind of a subset of an equity but
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still got to take some risk. I think real estate is a very still a pretty reasonable. It's obviously gotten hit. I think we're closer though to a buy point in commercial real estate than selling more right now. I
‸ That's what I've been talking to our investment committee about is we need to keep our eyes up here for the buy point because in 2008 if you remember what happened in 2008 we had kind of ‸ similar situation during the financial crisis. Real estate got hit.
got in the withdrawal queue line. By the time we got to the front of the line we moved over to the other line said you know I think it's time to get in not out. That's probably going to happen again because I think there's some pent up demand there and if rates did drop
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‸ was saying driving over the word was just from this 50 basis ‸ point drop we've seen this last week activity picked up. Well I think there's it would happen a lot.
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in hedge funds. We cannot invest in private equity. Yet we are obligated as fiduciaries to make money. Um, do you see our investment policy statement changing to allow for hedge fund investments to allow for private equity investments?
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there, but you can, I would always recommend that if you can go to a more, um, you know, get, get, I think it usually requires council approval to go to ‸ more liberal language that allows you if there's restrictions in there.
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um, I call it kind of the anti woke bill or anti ESG bill. What they didn't want was managers coming in to Florida and saying, uh, making their investment decisions to promote a social agenda or to promote an agenda that you all may not agree with, or two of you might agree with and two of you don't. The point being, if they're going to work for you as a pension board, their job is to make you money and any decision they make on the investment side should be done with that solely in mind.
They may look at ESG and say the fact that this company is doing this particular thing will help its earnings down the road, we believe, and we'll do that, you know, and then they end up recommending the stock. I don't
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me and say, you know, um, I want you to buy all these windmill companies because we believe that's the answer. If they do that, they're out the door. Well, we wouldn't let them come in to you anyway, if that was the case, you know, we just, we recognize
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No, I don't think so. I mean, we could get rid of that language, but I don't think it's something that, you know, BCA is recommending at this point in time, any investments ‸ hedge funds.
time we were considering it. ‸ You know, anytime we bring on a new asset class, you know, we, we do, you guys do revise the investment policy statement to take it into account with regard to the asset allocation. So I
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something that, you know, your firm's not going to stand behind and recommend to the trustees. And I don't have an issue with the investment policy, uh, as is presently.
We've had a lot of hedge fund managers come through the shop, tried to do some due diligence on it. This dates back. I've been doing this, that part of it for over 20 years.
one thing I can tell you, they come in and they are smart. Almost every hedge fund guy I've ever, I will tell you when they come in, they do their thing. I'm, I'm usually impressed with how intelligent they are. What I'm not impressed with typically are the, are the returns for the risk that you take the risk return trade off. Usually, uh,
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I feel like they're kind of the samurai guy. Just the hedge fund guys. They come in and they got a lot of good language and they got a lot of things they're throwing at you. They got a lot of features, a lot of derivatives, a lot of things they do. And then they
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now because banks have sort of dried up their lending. Uh, you know, with higher rates and regulations and problems banks have had in general, it's harder for middle sized companies to get loans. So, um, they've turned to the private market for direct lending in a lot of cases. Those aren't necessarily hedge funds. Those are usually, uh, you know, limited partnership structures where you can get in, but they lock up your money. They have some liquidity issues, but they do have some pretty attractive yields, but you pay for that yield with other features. So that's something, you know, that we could come and we'd have to have probably a change to the investment policy to permit it. But we're always looking at stuff like that. And as long as they don't get too risky, you know, there might be something that we bring to you down the road. But,
that's good. It actually dovetails, uh, right into my report on House Bill 3. So at the last meeting, you did actually revise your investment policy to include the provisions for House Bill 3, just saying that you're going to make your investment decisions based upon pecuniary factors.
The only housekeeping item left with regard to House Bill 3 compliance is to get that, uh, report filed with the Division of Retirement by December 15th.
to be a comprehensive report. So no help there. Uh, so what we did was we got on the phone with all the other, uh, pension attorneys in the state. And we had a couple of conference calls and we developed language, which is included in your packet. And it is the second document from us.
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we're aware of, uh, the law and that we have adopted this comprehensive investment policy, which you approved at the last meeting, which is attached to, you know, this, this document. And that serves as the report, we sent it for review up to, uh, Keith Brinkman at the Division of Retirement. He is fine with the report, and this is basically going to be the standard report that all pension funds in Florida are going to be using. Um, so, you know, Sheila has direction from us already that she should take this, you know,
we try to make it as easy as possible, and I think, you know, this meets the, uh, provisions of the law in the easiest manner possible. You know, kept it very simple. So, uh, you know, the division should not have an issue with it, and Sheila will get it filed. She already registered on the portal, and she will get it filed by December 15th. So,
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And, uh, we would like you, if we have an active investment manager voting proxies, we'd like you to place that on letterhead as well and send it out to the manager just so they are aware of,
the law when they are voting the proxies and they have to vote proxies solely with regard to pecuniary factors without considering any, you know, outside economical,
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the docket every couple of weeks to see if the case has gone to trial and the criminal case has been resolved and it's still, there's no, uh, resolution at this point in time. There's no trial date set, but, you know, just to let you know, I am keeping my eye on it to see if we're going to have to do institute forfeiture proceedings against the, uh, ex police officer. Other than that, nothing further to report today. I just wanted to, you know, take the opportunity to ‸ wish everyone a happy holiday, happy new year, good health, happiness. And, uh, you know, thank you for your continued confidence in the firm. We appreciate it.
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Flag: numbers, amounts, negation or names differ between the machine readings · 00:32:21–00:32:22 · unresolved: the words are not shown (unclear audio); listen to the recording
Flag: words were replaced by a machine repair · 00:32:23–00:32:23 · machine repair: words replaced where two further machine readings agreed (not checked by a person)
Flag: numbers, amounts, negation or names differ between the machine readings · 00:32:35–00:32:36 · unresolved: the words are not shown (unclear audio); listen to the recording
Flag: words were replaced by a machine repair · 00:32:40–00:32:40 · machine repair: words replaced where two further machine readings agreed (not checked by a person)
Flag: words were replaced by a machine repair · 00:32:44–00:32:45 · machine repair: words replaced where two further machine readings agreed (not checked by a person)
Flag: numbers, amounts, negation or names differ between the machine readings · 00:32:45–00:32:49 · unresolved: the words are not shown (unclear audio); listen to the recording
Flag: the recognizer flagged its own output; words only one machine reading has (possibly not said) · 00:33:13–00:33:40 · unresolved: the words are not shown (unclear audio); listen to the recording
Flag: words were replaced by a machine repair · 00:34:43–00:34:44 · machine repair: words replaced where two further machine readings agreed (not checked by a person)
of the actual paid expenses. And so that's a separate attachment that I put there. Also put the budget to show you that we did not exceed our... Budget,
Flag: numbers, amounts, negation or names differ between the machine readings; the recognizer flagged its own output · 00:34:56–00:35:57 · unresolved: the words are not shown (unclear audio); listen to the recording
Flag: numbers, amounts, negation or names differ between the machine readings; the recognizer flagged its own output · 00:36:12–00:36:43 · unresolved: the words are not shown (unclear audio); listen to the recording
So, you know, I don't know whether or not we have one. There's no requirement to actually have one. In fact, the IRS stopped issuing them a couple of years ago. So, if we don't have one, we're not going to get one. But that really does not ‸ have any effect on anything because all pension funds are considered qualified plans for purposes of the IRS tax code. So, I mean, there's no specific. ‸ Most of the plans do not have one. And there's no requirement to have one.
you know, if the law changes again, they open up the window to allow filing for them. You know, we can consider it, but it's not even something that's on the table at this point in time.
and we were talking retirement. And I was not aware that FRS has an eight year drop. So, I was wondering if that's something, it's not a benefit improvement to increase the drop from five to eight. Is that something that we would want to entertain? It
It would be subject to collective bargaining. There are a couple of funds who have, you know, headed in direction after they saw the FRS law change. You know, if it's something that we want to consider, you know, we got to reach out to the union and ask them if they, you know, it's something that they want to, you know, negotiate with the city for.
Flag: numbers, amounts, negation or names differ between the machine readings; the recognizer flagged its own output; the recognized words and the detected speech do not line up; a language review questioned the wording · 00:38:44–00:39:22 · unresolved: the words are not shown (unclear audio); listen to the recording
There's no cost involved, really. It's just a policy issue. ‸ It helps you retain the, you know, more seasoned, I'll use that word instead of age-related officers. You know, and if you can't… If you're having a problem attracting new police officers, then, you know, it's also helpful in that way. You know, ‸ it's really a policy decision for the ‸ city and it has to be a bargain.
Flag: the recognized words and the detected speech do not line up; a language review questioned the wording · 00:39:51–00:40:00 · unresolved: the words are not shown (unclear audio); listen to the recording
Flag: the recognized words and the detected speech do not line up · 00:40:01–00:40:04 · unresolved: the words are not shown (unclear audio); listen to the recording
Flag: numbers, amounts, negation or names differ between the machine readings · 00:40:23–00:40:23 · unresolved: the words are not shown (unclear audio); listen to the recording
Flag: numbers, amounts, negation or names differ between the machine readings; the recognizer flagged its own output; a language review questioned the wording · 00:40:25–00:40:47 · unresolved: the words are not shown (unclear audio); listen to the recording
Flag: numbers, amounts, negation or names differ between the machine readings · 00:40:50–00:41:00 · unresolved: the words are not shown (unclear audio); listen to the recording
Flag: numbers, amounts, negation or names differ between the machine readings; a language review questioned the wording · 00:41:19–00:41:26 · unresolved: the words are not shown (unclear audio); listen to the recording
Flag: numbers, amounts, negation or names differ between the machine readings · 00:41:31–00:41:34 · unresolved: the words are not shown (unclear audio); listen to the recording