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Transcript Partial transcript
Machine transcription of the meeting recording. The words are the recognizer's, except where a passage is marked as corrected or machine re-recognized; most have
not been checked against the audio, so words, numbers and names can be misheard.
It describes what was said. It cannot establish who voted how, an amount or an outcome — the City's
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136 suspect passage(s) marked in place; insufficient transcript coverage: most of the recognized text is suspect; inspection incomplete: language review.
How this transcript was made. New machine transcription of the whole recording, with 6 voices separated from the audio.
16 short machine repair(s) (20 word(s)) are labelled in place, with the original words beside them: an ordinary word was replaced only where two further machine readings agreed on a different one.
Checks run on this transcript: the recognizer's own warning signs and whether a voice was detected where the words are. Not completed: language review.
A second, independent machine reading was compared with it word by word: the same words for 54.0% of 8,556 content words.
Dotted words (129 places) are ordinary wording differences: hover or tap to see the other reading.
136 passages (58% of the words) are marked suspect: their words are not shown ("unclear audio") and support no statement: numbers, amounts, negation or names differ; the language review questioned them; or no voice was detected there.
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Inspection is incomplete: language review.
Speakers were separated by voice. A plain name rests on evidence tied to that voice; “provisional” is a name from an earlier text-only pass and is not verified; “Speaker N” is an unidentified voice.
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care about the investment stuff. So it's great to see you all. I gave you hard copies of both the June 30th and the September 30th. My plan was just to go through the 930 book. It's our fiscal year end. The June report was decent. The plan was up about 1%. It wasn't anything crazy that happened that quarter, but ‸ very pleased.
Doug had talked about, this is a tremendous fiscal year for most pension funds. And even in spite of, if you remember, we de-risked the portfolio in thinking about trying to be proactive with knowing that we were going to reduce the return assumption.
rates went up and reduced our equity. Even in spite of that, we got ‸ over 18% for the pension for this fiscal year. So it was ‸ tremendous. If you flip to page 2 and 3 of the 930 report, on page 3, you can see on the upper right-hand side is what happened in the quarter for the broad equity and fixed income indices, and then the one-year period, which corresponds to our fiscal year on the lower right-hand side. In the quarter, we saw the S&P 500 up about 6%.
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return for bonds. In red, you can see the U.S. aggregate bond, Bloomberg U.S. aggregate bond index, up over 5% for the quarter. The big news in the quarter was the Federal Reserve in September starting to lower their interest rates after aggressively raising rates from, you know, as inflation was roaring, you know,
5.25 to 5.5%. And then they kept rates at that level for about a year, and then in September started cutting rates as things are starting to normalize from inflation, right? We peaked in the middle of 2022 at 9% inflation, which was a 40-year high in inflation. And you go, you know, you fast forward to last month, we're at 2.4%. The Fed's trying to get to 2%, but they're not going to wait until we hit that number. They want to be proactive and I would say normalize monetary policy in advance of it kind of getting to that level because they don't want the economy to a crater, right? And if you remember that really bad fiscal year in 2022 where, you know, from January to October,
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jacking up interest rates so aggressively, we're going to get into some recession and potentially a bad recession. And we just haven't seen that. And so from a fundamental perspective, you can see, you know, over the last year, I mean,
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The market's very, very optimistic right now of the Fed being able to kind of walk that tightrope of bringing the inflation down without cratering and creating any sort of recession. And fundamentally right now there isn't any signs of that.
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know, earnings growth, revenues growth is solid. So things from, you know, that kind of fundamental perspective look good. The one risk right now is, you know,
stocks are expensive relative to historical levels. If you look at the price earnings ratio, how much you're paying for each unit of earnings for the S&P 500, we're looking at 23 times next 12 months. There haven't been many times in history where it's been that expensive. You know, it's got in the tech bubble, it got up, you know, higher than that. But you're talking about
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So we'll get into this. And particularly it's those growth names, even though this was a quarter, last quarter was a quarter where value did a little bit better than growth. So the more interest rate sensitive financials and utilities as interest rates declined last quarter and then the market was kind of reacting to the Fed starting to lower rates, did better than growth.
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I always like to go through this one. Particularly we have the new trustees. ‸ Paul can kind of see the long-term history over the last 10 years of the pension. So this page shows you the blue line is the market value of the pension given the investment program over time. That gray bar ‸ at the bottom is the net cash flow. So if you just had your money in a safety deposit box,
comes in versus go out. Obviously, we've been in net cash outflow mode given the dynamics that Doug talked about being a retiree-only plan. You know, we're paying out this last fiscal year. We paid out a million dollars and we had, you know, just a handful of dollars come in, maybe 60 grand or so, ‸ right? So, you know, we started 10 years ago at ‸ just over $13 million. We paid out almost $10 million during that time period.
left in the pension. But because of the investment program, we're actually above where we were at 10 years ago at 14.2 because we had almost $11 million of gains during that time period. So
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quarterly look over the last five quarters, but the right-hand side is September 30th. So you can see total fund $14.227 million at the end of the fiscal year. We
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fiscal year at 13.1. And I want to highlight up top here, you can see we are overweight equities a bit, but you can see relative to our IPS targets on the next page. I just want
highlight the Winslow large-cap growth. So ‸ that fund is outside of ‸ the region's account where all the rest of the investments are other than our real estate. So on a quarterly basis, we've rebalanced to fund the benefits, right? So Winslow doesn't get touched because it's outside of the region's bank.
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5% right now, which is a pretty attractive yield for very conservative fixed income instruments. So that will ‸ get us a little bit closer to our target in terms of our equity weighting. And then also, ‸ like I said, kind of reduce that overweight that we have to the large-cap growth ‸ while beefing up our fixed income. And you can see on page 17, kind of overall, this is ‸ our asset allocation compliance page that shows you the current allocation relative to our targets. And you can see the total domestic equity at green. ‸ We're ‸ within our allowable range, but we're a couple percent overweight domestic equity, a couple percentage point underweight domestic fixed income. So ‸ this rebalance will help us get us close to the targets. So I wanted to answer ‸ any questions you might have about that, that that recommendation would require a motion in the board to approve.
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that you all have approved ‸ to sell investments as we have cash needs. So that ‸ you can see ‸ we kind of take from a little bit from everything other than the Winslow and the real estate, which are outside of regions, and to fund the cash needs. So nothing came in during the period.
know, the ARA real estate fund that you pay a management fee to. That was about $5,000. You had, you know, just shy of $15,000 in other expenses during the period. And solid return for the quarter, $80,000 of dividends
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know, the way that we structure it, you know, we're not just sitting on our heels and letting our equities ride when this market's up. You can see we sold $859,000 worth of equities during the fiscal year and $200,000 worth of fixed income to fund our cash needs during the period.
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So 4.4% for the quarter and just shy net of fees, just shy of 18%, 17.8% net of fees for the fiscal year. And Doug kind of talked about this, the long-term results for this pension have been fantastic. You know, going out 10 years, we're at 8%. You know, we're trying to get 6.6 now, but, you know, we were at 7 and we reduced it. But the results have been fantastic. And, you know, this is, you know, over the last 10-year period, the number in parentheses where you rank relative to all pension plans nationally, not all, but, you know, several hundred you know, it's not just our clients, Mariner. It's, ‸ I think there's 10 different investment consultants that puts ‸ their numbers and their plan numbers into here. You
particular, but I think every investment that you have is kind of hitting what we think given their investment process. So I'm not recommending that we fire anyone and try to find new funds at this ‸ quarter. Everything, you know,
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kind of our research team re-vetted that strategy. They've done pretty well for us over the long term, outperforming their benchmark and ranking in the top quartile back to 2016 on the right-hand side. Just every action manager goes through periods of outperformance and underperformance, and I think there was just some style issues there for the last year. That's two years that I believe we should be patient. I still think that's a good strategy. Yeah,
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does. Very conservative for a core ‸ fund, kind of eking out small wins versus the index over time. And then the PIMCO Global Bond Fund has been great. You know, if you remember back
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know, the Global Tactical Asset Allocation Fund's doing what we would expect there. You know, the one positive news, you know, it's been a very rough go for commercial real estate and our real estate fund. ‸ Last quarter was the first positive return
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we de-risked. But we didn't get any of the money back or we got maybe 50 cents on the dollar back. I think we got about half or maybe 60 percent of what we've asked for. So we're still a little bit overweight. Our new target for real estate. So I'm not going to recommend that we basically rescind the redemption request that we made a couple of years ago.
two years, we're starting to hear positive news and positive kind of chatter from the real estate managers and our research team in that area. So, you know, we'll see what will happen. ‸ Long term, I like this asset class.
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downturn, and we're dealing with it now. But a lot of the market participants believe that we are kind of creating this bottom that we should establish over the next couple ‸ quarters where you can get a more normalized return.
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be more of a slow burn where you're going to start, you create this new bottom, and then you'll start getting kind of annualized 6, 7 percent returns, which is what we expect from that asset class going forward.
the office, which is, you know, there's some, that's going to be a longer term issue of working ‸ their way out of that, given the work from home and the less demand for office space. And ‸ they're overweight, you know, industrial. They're overweight multifamily slash apartments, which I think structurally are positioned well for the future. So, and with that, I'll open it up to any questions about the investments in your pension.
So, so I don't think it's as dire as some people were talking about, where like there's going to be no demand for office space. And you are seeing, you, it's going to be a lot of, like, we'll use Mariner. You know, I, I'm on the road seeing clients all the time. But the people that are in the office all the time, you know, they come in three days a week and they have the option to work from home two days a
fundamentals. ‸ There's a big spread between the haves and have nots in office. Like if you're a newer building that has all the amenities and, you know, you might have Starbucks there and, and, and, uh, you know, the natural light, et cetera, you're, you're probably 90, 95%. Um, um,
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some issues, but it's really focused on, you know, the, the, the old kind of buildings that people just don't want anymore. If we're going to be in the office, we want to be in the kind of the nice building. Um, but I, I would agree that you're, you know, there were a lot of, you know, you can read a lot of things that it's the end of office. No one's ever going back to ‸ office. I think that, that, that was a little bit as, as things in the news tend to be a little bit sensational and the reality is a little bit closer to, um, you know, there's, there's definitely a structural impact, but it'll probably be less than, than some people were projecting. Yeah. Any other questions? All right.
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Okay. We're adjourning at 1157. Sean, I hope the city clerk will get back and I can get us better set up for the one o'clock meeting. But I'll text you, okay?
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