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court has not dismissed that yet. So just FYI, that is still hanging out there. No change in that from what we've talked about many times before. I expect eventually the court will dismiss that for lack of prosecution. And for that reason, the status of medical review for disability recipients will stay out there. We do still have two that have not responded. I figured that ‸ maybe we'll just, after the first of the year in January, go ahead and proceed with hers. And I mean, at this point,
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No, no, it's still at circuit court. But remember, they filed an amended complaint. And we filed a motion to dismiss because they failed to properly file their petition.
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And so when they enter into new agreements with other people that change the terms, like in that case, it was just about access to information. They send it out to all of their subscribers to say, hey, we've modified it. Do you want to adopt this new provision? So nothing that required any board action doesn't change your investments. I just wanted the other
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understanding is that the January class will take place as a schedule. And so that any of those that had paid and did not take the refund back, they were eligible to continue to do the class in January. I
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I'm going to email Salem and let them know that you have the check and maybe just read it. I don't think we need it back. Okay. I can just have them do it.
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Oh, for the benefit approvals, yes. ‸ There's a, actually there's two. There's a drop distribution and then there's an application for benefits. It's the disability that we approved at the last meeting.
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room down the hall. Thank you. Thank you. Appreciate it. I think it's on now. Yes. ‸ Perfect. If you all have a copy of the report, if I could refer you to page 5 of 84 on the bottom we'll say page 4. And as you know this just shows the economic statistics. And it's a good way to remind ourselves that this book obviously captures the third quarter. So July, August, September. Positive news in the upper left hand corner of the page that shows that we did have positive ‸ growth in terms of the US GDP at 2.6% on an annualized basis. The takeaway here is that it was positive relative to
two back-to-back quarters that we had negative. Technically the two back-to-back quarters was a mark of potentially a recession. Although of course employment was too strong and still remains pretty strong.
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Page 4 of a hard copy. Page 4. I was just pointing to the upper left hand corner highlighting that GDP was positive. Unemployment still is at a very tepid 3.5% which is why officially the
However, we look forward next 12 months or so, I wouldn't be surprised if we dip into a recession. It just kind of feels like we may be on the cusp of one with everything that's happening.
Fast forward a year from now, I wouldn't be surprised if we're half of that level. Which is kind of more similar to where we are on a longer term basis for inflation.
was in the system because of COVID. And the Fed was trying to stimulate the economy. We were not the only Fed or central bank that did that around the world. Pretty much most of the major central banks did that as well. Well, we are a little bit better footing because we did start raising rates earlier than most places. And at a pretty measured and continued pace, you have places in Europe, for instance, England, their inflation rate topped out at double digits. Just
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10%. And most of Europe is also feeling the same effects. So part of what they're feeling, of course, though, is as a knock-on effect with Russia invading Ukraine. And they get a lot of their raw materials from that area. So oil prices, gas prices, fertilizer. As you may know, natural gas actually is one of the main inputs of oil for fertilizer. And, of course, that price goes up.
price goes up as well. All those things are still somewhat elevated. The other exogenous event that we've talked about before is China. You're hearing about it recently because China now had some protests about their zero COVID closures. I mean,
like this. We have COVID. They're shutting down the whole city. ‸ So they're seeing that because that obviously cannot be controlled by the state media. And perhaps realizing that the zero COVID policy that they have is ineffective.
But it seems like the current turmoil that you're seeing, the civil disobedience, will probably be crushed pretty quickly. Because China is still, the communist government is more of a dictatorship if anything. ‸ That's ‸ probably the best analogy. So the challenge there, though, is that they are still going through COVID closures. And that will create a challenge, continued challenge on the GDP of China. For us, how that affected us for the prior quarter is that everything relative to the quarter before remained constant. Meaning anything that was liquid, stocks and bonds, still lost for the third quarter. The only pocket of strength was real assets.
fractionally up 0.5% for the quarter. For the trailing 12 months, it was up 22%. And if you look at that 12-month column, though, everything that was liquid, all the stocks, including bonds, they were all off double digits. So it was quite a challenge. Interestingly enough, a little bit of gradient in the bottom left-hand corner of the page.
Not by a huge margin, but you actually see a positive number for small cap growth for the quarter. Everything else was negative. And for the trailing year, everything was obviously double digits. So small solace in the positive quarter for small cap growth. Because when
that had one of the more weak returns. If I could ask you to flip a couple ‸ pages to page 7. And this is a snapshot of the portfolio over different trailing periods, as you know. The takeaway is that, unfortunately, we did lose money, as all the plans out there pretty much lost money. However, we lost less money than most plans. Lost 3.6% on a gross basis, 3.7% on net basis, ranking in the 21st percentile. So, did nicely for the quarter, at least. And if you look over the longer term numbers,
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Most recent quarter, we did defend a little bit more. Frankly, that's because we have a hefty slug in real estate, which I'll talk about in a moment. If you look in the upper right-hand corner of
page, asset allocation, you see here that we have about almost 40% in large cap, about 18% in SMIC cap, 6% in international, and then the rest of it was either real estate, bonds, or cash. So, when you kind of add up ‸ numbers, it's like a 60, easy number,
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So, we should be getting that at the beginning of the year. So, when we ask for the money, we get into a queue, and then you have to wait 90 days after the request.
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So, they don't have a queue to get out. But there's a process that we have to follow in order to get our money out. And we have to wait 90 days from the request.
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Absolutely. But the reason why I made that distinction is that there are other Odyssey funds where you raise your hand and say, I want to take my money out. They say, we understand. We'll put you on the list. And hopefully, we can get you some money within six months, nine months. That's not the case with Intercontinental.
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updated value as of Friday. And what I can tell you is that even that million one has some of the cash that's in your managers, which is why it's that way.
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if I were a betting person, I would say that the equity markets right now, where we are today, probably go up and down for the foreseeable three, six months.
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just wanted to highlight for you the interesting dichotomy that we have. Because the top line shows that for the quarter, the fund ranked in the top quartile. Yet, the pieces aren't as strong. You see large cap, we're at minus 5 versus the bogey at minus 4.9. So, right in line with benchmark, 56 percentile.
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So, Richmond, they've done an effective job as possible. Okay. Because they do try to stay a little bit shorter in terms of duration. But with rates rising, bonds are going to go down. That's the challenge. Which is why I made the recommendation to keep money in cash as opposed to give it to bonds.
‸ So, I believe they still are. The restriction that we have with them is that it's still A or better. We didn't go into triple B. But it's just, you know, conversation. I mean, they obviously are aware of all the opportunities that they have.
September 30th. ‸ That's the. Every plan in the state of Florida, that's the most important day of the whole year. You can go 8,000 gain and 2,000 walls and 40,000 gain. Still, that date's the most important.
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Which is why in your packet, as you know, you have a survey that Foster and Foster produces with all of their clients. Yeah. And your 2021 market value investment returns and the fees was very good. Yeah, we were number one.
Yes, yes. I mean, honestly, the reason why you guys were number one was because we do have a fair amount of equity exposure and real estate exposure. But that was by design, right? So, you ‸ have to take your kudos. It was very nice. But it's not something you should expect all the time. As evidenced with the volatility that we've had recently.
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As of last Friday, back up to 24 million. I mean, that's how volatile it's been, right? It is a big swing. October was very friendly. November is kind of chucking up a little bit. But again, I wouldn't be surprised if we fluctuate between where we are kind of here, up and down a little bit. Because the way that Wall Street analysts look at earnings and multiples and where the markets are supposed to be going. Right now, you have an estimate of future year, next year returns for S&P 500 to be about $230 per share. And then, they're using a 17 multiple on that. What that means here, you take that number times 17 to give you a target value of roughly 3,900.
However, that expectation is based on earnings that you have when they looked at it earlier in the year. Well, early in the year, it still looked like we had some grass shoots and that potentially earnings will continue to rise. If earnings come down, that number can come down. The only way it stays up is if you have PE expansion. So, instead of multiplying by 17, maybe multiply by 18, 18 and a half.
At the end, what that means is that there are reasons why it makes sense that we're kind of where we are. And I wouldn't be surprised if we have some backward and forward movement. I don't expect us to have a dramatic downdraft or dramatic updraft.
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Because you had a fair amount of volatility when you heard about FTX, which is a cryptocurrency ‸ marketplace. The reason for that is that they had a tie-in with a hedge fund that he was running.
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What we decided to do is that we were able to get some of the longer-term numbers for the chart. And as a reminder, this is a pictorial depiction of the corpus of the fund, in this case, for the past almost 20 years.
The dotted hash line is our assumption rate over that period. And then, the line on the bottom is the cash flow line. How that translates into actual dollars is the bottom right-hand corner of the page. So, over this almost 20 years, the portfolio started at $7.6 million.
But investment returns were more than double of what we started off with. Which is why, at the end of this period, we're at $23 million. As I told you, now we're closer at $24 million. A couple of takeaways I think are pretty important to look at. Number one, the overall trend of the growth is
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So, you are making more money over time. It's not a smooth ride, though. There are bumps along the road. I think the most dramatic bump that we felt is recent. However, if you look at 2008, that was the great financial crisis, GFC, right? Where you had people buying houses with no money down, no jobs. They were called ninja loans, things like that. It took the plan about four or five years to gain the market cap that we were at. Right?
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So, you'll notice that there is a lot of volatility. I think what you can take away from it is that these bumps do happen. But that over time, they do get moderated. And because we have more stocks in the portfolio, because we are a long duration portfolio, we should continue to rise. So, it is a bump. It's a reminder for us so that we are a portfolio or a pension plan that should think about long-term performance. Understanding that we do have some bumps in the road.
‸ Upper right side shows you our targets. And then the last column shows you the difference. As you know, we are a little bit over allocated to real estate. That number now is 20.8. After we took off 2%, it will be even better. The most over allocation that we had was cash. But as I mentioned to you, some of that cash was in all the equity components. And then if you go to the next page. This is where we put names to the asset classes. As well as break out the two large cap managers. ‸ So, if you look at that first column, for the most part,
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the same numbers that we saw a moment ago. With the exception of now we have Poland and Brandywine. Poland is our large cap growth manager. Brandywine is our large cap value manager. Poland didn't perform well for the quarter. Over the long term, they have ranked well.
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say that for large cap growth right now, this past year has eviscerated active management. There are hardly any active managers that are actually outperforming the index. Because it would happen for the past year. But Poland is sticking with their knitting. They are a concentrated manager who does hold good quality companies over the long term. If you believe in that style, over the long term that should do well. For Brandywine, they are our active large cap value manager. And what I can say is that they have a nice quarter. And frankly, since they've been on board with us June of 2017, they've done nicely. They're
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Who frankly has had the worst year that I've seen. And of course, we hired them right before this, unfortunately. They are a growth-oriented manager as well.
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Now, the debbie downer. Real estate will come down. We're starting to see fragments of it now. So, I know we just asked them for some money. If you want to ask them for a little bit more money, I wouldn't be against that. Yeah.
be slightly negative, but I wouldn't be surprised if we can get a negative number. So, if we want to raise maybe another $500,000 from intercontinental,
will, again, we won't get that money until April anyway. But it's just sizing, stepping away from it. It's done nicely for us. And I know it's difficult to take away money from a manager that's doing well. But when you kind of look at what you see ahead of you in the next six months or so, I wouldn't be surprised if you get those negative numbers.
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Just to reinforce for you that although we saw the cash number a little bit higher, this was the actual cash that we had at the end of September. You notice that last line there, the R&D account. We had a little over $700,000, right? So that million something that we saw a moment ago on page seven was because we do a drill down and look at the cash that's actually in your managers. Poland has a bunch of that. So that's why our cash is at a more reasonable level. Yes. So as of November
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So we may have a reason to have 500,000 anyway. Perfect. That's all I have for the quarterly book. I'm happy to address any questions that you might have on the economy, on the managers, on the portfolio.
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So short answer is yes, we've looked at it. Also, we don't have any clients invested just in currencies because when we've looked at it, honestly, currency is kind of a zero-sum game. What that means is that you're going to have winners and losers, and rarely are you going to get the winning right every single time.
on the international side, obviously, they have investments primarily in companies that might be either more local or international, and they trade in those respective currencies. And
have international exposure, and therefore, you're going to get some of that. They themselves hedge it out anyway. So it's a volatile asset class, especially for a fund that's a little bit more modest in size. We
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So Bill joined us, I want to say about, ‸ yeah, time flew. So I always, because the first time I met him, he was 14 years old. I've been with the company for 20 years, right? So he's joined us. He's moved up through the ranks, and now he's officially
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the title of chair. Rich is taking the title of chair. Bill is taking the title of CEO. Effectively, what that means is that nothing changes for us here. But internally, Rich is stepping back a little bit more from the day-to-day of the company. Bill is stepping into that a little bit more. Bill has some of his own relationships. Rich
He lives less than a mile from the office, though. So he's not going anywhere. This is something that he loves to do because he started the company in 1986 when he was in his 30s. So this is kind of his pride and joy. So he will still be there, but Bill is growing in his responsibilities and obviously is taking on more of the day-to-day operations.
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So I am a bridge, if you will, because Rich is in their latest 60s. Bill is in his late 30s, and I'm in my late 40s. So we have a good relationship because over this time of the couple of decades that I've been doing this, I've seen a lot of things. But there are times that I will turn to some of my colleagues who have a little bit more experience than I do and ask them for their opinion on situations or their thoughts. And Bill still does that with his dad and myself. So I act as that bridge.
But the thing I think I should talk, I'm happy to provide education, but I want to be realistic about the investment products as well as the asset classes. Are you opposed to getting into an investment that's going to last potentially 10 to 12 years?
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So ‸ the fund is kind of at that level where potentially if you carve off 10% and put it into that type of investment, you could do that. But ‸ you are locking in 10% of
fund there. Remember, you have another 18 going on 16% of the fund in real estate, which is also locked up. On a quarterly basis, roughly, you have to think about it the last six months. So if we did go down this road, you're looking at about a quarter of the portfolio being less liquid, which isn't outrageous. But I just want to remind you and to measure temperament that you all are comfortable potentially locking up at least 10% of the portfolio into 10 years, 15 years.
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So if you do feel comfortable with that, then I would bring you some ideas across multiple asset classes. And then I'll probably throw in a couple of products just for you to at least get an idea of what that would entail.
Absolutely. It's part of that. We'll do all of that. So I'm thinking of maybe agriculture, timber, infrastructure, private equity. It's going to be high level because each one of those I could take an hour easily.
before the meeting, I'll send something to you all so that you can take a look at it. And then we could either drill down more into one of the asset classes or I'll provide a couple of products which bridge multiple asset classes. So they're not pure plays on any of them, which means that the returns probably are going to be a little bit softer. But it probably is the easier way to access multiple asset classes.
again, it's just really first step. Think of it as education. Second step, if you want to go forward, we can either go forward something like that or we can go down into one of those verticals.
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You'd like, I mean, there have been a lot of programs like that. They're generally, though, for a lot bigger funds, you know, but if you go back to 8, 9 and pulling out of that between TARP and TALF and
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funds. And I know 22 or $28 million sounds like a lot of money, but it's not a lot of money in the pension fund world. But I mean, they saw returns of 30, 40% come out of those programs, you know, that were crazy, but they were risky. You know, that's how they bailed out the auto manufacturers, how they bailed out with that money. So it was risky that if the companies didn't come back, you
And also usually they're appropriately invested. The size of the allocation is appropriate relative to the amount of risk. What that means is that they probably only had a very small percentage of their portfolio in it. Right. Because our size is so modest, the fund size is, you know, for round numbers is, let's say, 25 million. In order for us to have an impactful enough decision, it needs to be at the point where
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a fraction of a percent. A fraction of a percent for us does nothing. It's just a lot of headache for no reason. At a 10% level, it would be impactful. At
No, absolutely not. Because we do have a handful of clients that are a little bit smaller, more endowments and foundations, but they are invested in that.
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what funds like yours typically would do to get that exposure is they don't have a direct private equity investment. They don't have a direct lease with the government for these ships. Instead, they buy into a fund of funds where a bunch of smaller pension funds or endowments or ‸ anybody who doesn't have the hundreds of millions of dollars or even billions of dollars that some of the other pension funds have. So they pool their money into a fund of funds and then that fund becomes the direct investor in the private equity.
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you. So happy to do it. Don't want to make it sound like it's cookie cutter because obviously everything is in cookie cutter. But ‸ the education piece remains pretty consistent. What we do is we refresh the slides if there are more data points primarily and then perhaps a change in the offerings for different asset classes. We would have to adjust that. ‸ But we never advise clients to invest in something on the bleeding edge. So we have no clients in cryptocurrency, for instance. But you may remember, you know, a year ago we were talking about cryptocurrency, as was every plan out there talking about cryptocurrency. Right? Exactly. Exactly. But talking about other asset classes that are alternatives to what we have is pretty reasonable and standard. So happy to do it. And if I think that's it for me for my portion, but happy to address any other questions that you might have.
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But I've been to several meetings over there, and it's interesting that they expect, talking about private equity, they expect Hurricane Ian to be a J-curve, that they're going to take
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then the value of my property is going to decline significantly. However, they fully anticipate that there will be a rebuild, and the rebuild, once completed, will significantly increase their tax base compared to what it was. So
paid. So they don't anticipate a big revenue problem for now. Next year is when it's going to, that's the unknown. But, so you may, they may suffer, but then they expect to. Will
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