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Transcript Partial transcript
Machine transcription of the meeting recording. The words are the recognizer's, except where a passage is marked as corrected or machine re-recognized; most have
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154 suspect passage(s) marked in place; 2 stretch(es) where a voice was detected and no words were recognized.
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7 short machine repair(s) (12 word(s)) are labelled in place, with the original words beside them: an ordinary word was replaced only where two further machine readings agreed on a different one.
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00:41:06 (4 s) — neither reading has words
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Speakers were separated by voice. A plain name rests on evidence tied to that voice; “provisional” is a name from an earlier text-only pass and is not verified; “Speaker N” is an unidentified voice.
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Now, ‸ that's always an estimate for two reasons. One is we don't know what the state monies are going to be this year. And secondly, the city puts in a dollar requirement. They fully fund the plan each October 1st as a lump sum. So while we're looking at that right-hand column for the current year, the city's already made its contribution. I ‸ don't know, as we sit here today, the amount they put in because they have to ballpark it. They're guessing what
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using what they had to put in in fiscal 23 compared to our calculation, they overfunded by just over $91,000. So there is a footnote on page 6 at the bottom. And the city folks, they know where to look for that. ‸ Perfect. Part of the reason for that, I think, is the state contribution went up.
which has been going on everywhere in the state, not just police but also fire. So that probably had a role in it. Also because the city's estimating, I'm guessing they're being conservative and they might be putting in some margin so they don't get caught short.
That's quite a jump. There's a couple of reasons for that in moving parts. Some of it's because of an actuarial loss. Primarily due to the investment side.
on the market return for the year, you did fine. Larry's already given you that information. Our calculation was 8.6%. We were going for the assumption, 7.25%.
We used that average. And that came in short. That came in at 5.2%. So there was an investment loss. Salary increases came in a little higher than expected as well. Our calculation was about 6.5%. We were looking at 5-ish.
But you did have an actuarial gain. It didn't offset fully the investment and the salary. But no surprise to everybody here, turnover. High turnover. We started the year with 58 actives and 8 terminated.
So at the end of the year, it was not fully staffed back up. So headcount-wise, we went from 58 to 54. That had a lot to do with why the contribution as a percent of payroll went up. Payroll is smaller. So you have this ongoing payment for the unfunded liability. And even if there was no actuarial loss, you're now taking that payment and dividing it by a smaller payroll.
Now, I'll just give you a heads up. Let's say whatever the chief and the city are doing to try and encourage turnover from occurring and trying to get new people in, I could show you a real different answer next year if they're successful. And that's because when a new hire comes into the plan on average,
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So new hires coming in is really good for a plan. It can really bring down the percent of payroll contribution requirement because all those extra monies are going towards the unfunded liability. So just kind of giving you a heads up on that, that if the turnover issue is addressed successfully, I could show you a
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I would ballpark roughly, based on current payroll, let's call it 780,000. That's a big caveat, though, because if they are successful in trying to get turnover under control and get a lot of new hires in, and on top of that negotiate pay increases, it could be higher than that 780. But just based on current payroll, that would be my estimate. All right. I figured there's a bidding war around the state. I'm a broken record
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I'll just do the math. That's $31,000 a year. There's no way that you're going to have special risk entry under $31,000 when that happens. ‸ Then you get inflation, and then you get a housing market issue, especially in Florida. Everybody trying to move to Florida and supply and demand.
So when interest rates go up, people sitting on a lot of equity in their house, they're like, oh, well, a certain percentage would take the equity out and say, I'll just go and get another house somewhere else. I'll do ‸ some mortgage somewhere else, smaller house maybe, something. But when the interest rates go up, people have equity ‸ in their house. Like, well, I'd like to take cash out, but if I do that,
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got to find another place, and I'm going to trade my current mortgage for a really bad interest rate. ‸ Who's going to want to trade a mortgage where they're paying 3% or 4% for 6, 7, 8? So that has contributed to housing prices staying high in Florida especially.
If you just do the rule of thumb that your mortgage shouldn't be more than 25% of your net. And if a house, if it's very hard to get a house for under $400,000, you've got to make about $100,000 a year to afford a house.
finish up on page 18. Just swipe right. A couple of times you're going to come across the funding progress chart, green bars. And in spite of the net loss this last year and that the city's requirement going up as a percent of payroll, the funded status is still pretty stable. With this report, you can see on that graph, it's 90.3%. Last year it was 91.4%. So your plan's still in very good shape. You've been in the 90s even cracking 100 for the last decade. So that just shows that the plan is, you know, being funded with methods and assumptions in a way
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myself to the August meeting to talk about your investment return assumption. But then I looked, and the last time we did a full review of all the assumptions with an experience study was six years ago. So what I'm recommending is when I show up in August, I do a review of all the assumptions with an experience study. So we'll talk about not just the investment return but everything else.
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All right. Well, good to see everybody again. As I was here last quarter, I remember, I guess it was mid-November, and I had mentioned that we would expect to see some rotation in the market.
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kind of trailing or doing so-so. Matter of fact, probably at the time I was here, the S&P 493 taking out those seven was probably flat, maybe up a percent or two, but wasn't up much.
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average over 100% or something. It was a ridiculous number. And we expected to see, hope to see some rotation. Also, during the quarter, last quarter, and that's the quarter we're reviewing now, remember that the CPI number came out a little lower than expected, 3.2, I think it was,
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times ‸ in 2024. Well, again, I can't remember the timing, whether I mentioned this last time, but the reason that CPI number came down, really, was just because of gas. Gas came down quite a bit, which made no sense to me whatsoever, because a war had just broken out in Israel and looked like it could spread. That's not usually an environment where you see oil prices go down. So I thought maybe the CPI number was a little bit temporary and that we might see a spike back up, and we have a little bit.
Now they're down to two or three rate cuts, possibly in 2024. And they've all been pushed back out to, you know, much later in the year. You know, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if there are no rate cuts in 2024. Inflation still, the core inflation number is still running close to 4%. Their target's two. Again, oil prices have stayed relatively low, but they're starting to tick back up a little bit. So, again, it wouldn't surprise me to see oil back at $100 a barrel before too long, given what's going on in the Mideast. So I think it's a little premature to think that the Fed is going to start cutting rates. Inflation is nowhere near where they want it. And Powell has made it, Chairman Powell has made it very clear he's going to stick to it and make sure it comes down. The good news is, though, it did spark a nice rally in the stock market in the fourth quarter, and your returns are good for the quarter. So we got off to a great start for your 2024 fiscal year due to some of that.
in the quarter, as we kind of thought, I didn't think it happened that fast, but it did start to broaden a little bit. And your returns reflect that. You'll see some pretty good numbers.
You know, Tesla's kind of dropped out of it, but this market is still being dominated by those names again. But overall, the market is up a little bit. Small caps are down, but large and mid-cap equities are still up. We're probably up from the numbers I'm showing you today.
quarter to date, just based on the market. So the markets seem pretty resilient right now to any news. It's almost, I don't know, a little bit scary at the levels that the market is at. But, you know, we'll take it, obviously. I don't think there's any chance, really, that the Fed will raise rates again. There's enough signs in the economy right now that it's slowing down or starting to slow down that I think they'd really risk if they raised rates. I think that could put the economy in a real tailspin. And so my guess is they just kind of leave it alone for a while. And
get closer to the election. At least historically, they've left it alone as they got closer to the election. They didn't want to have any influence, but, you know, we'll see what happens then. But all in all, earnings have come in pretty good. And so it's not just a market that's, you know, where the price earnings multiples are expanding. Earnings have come in pretty strong. So it's ‸ kind of justified to have pretty decent ‸ returns. There's a big number coming out at the end of today. You can, if you watch any business news, it's going to come out. But NVIDIA releases their earnings tonight.
know, and the market will swing on it. If they disappoint, the market will tumble. If they surprise on the upside, my guess is the whole market will shoot straight up.
don't know if it still is, but the markets were down a little bit this morning. But it's all kind of based on what NVIDIA comes out with today. That said, I'll go through the book kind of quick. If there are any questions, let me know. But as I said, it was a good fourth quarter. If you look at the top of page two, those are the various market indices, both bonds and stocks and even commodities. If you pull out last quarter's book, it was just the opposite.
fiscal year, and things look pretty good. Down on the bottom left of the different sectors, again, same story. Everything was up. If you flip to page three, the top of page three is the bond market and all the various sectors of the bond market all up, as you can see. And then the bottom of that page deals with international, and international was also up strong. So ‸ good stock market, good bond market. We actually saw rates tick down just a little bit during the quarter. That has kind of reversed itself this quarter. But, again, provided for some nice positive returns in both bonds and stocks. If you flip over to page six, something I just noticed as Doug was doing his report, and we'll get it corrected. But in the green section, we still show 7.5% is the assumed rate.
So I recognize that we have the wrong number there. If you go then to compliance, ‸ really the compliance is built in there. There's no page eight is a few things straight out of the investment policy. We did not identify any compliance issues at all. So that's ‸ always good news. Performance starts on page nine. I'll just look at the quarter on this page. Started at 34.6. Net contributions were actually positive for the quarter. Then we had a nice gain. So your ending market value was 37.6. Total fund return, this is net of investment management fees, was 7.9%. A little bit below the model, but again, a very strong quarter. I think we'd take four quarters like that any day. Page 10 is your asset allocation. I'm not going to make any, you know, I talked with Mitchell quite a bit yesterday. We're not going to make any rebalancing recommendations.
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So you can't get out fast enough. Although if this was a repeat of 08, 09, we got in line to get out of a lot of real estate funds during the financial crisis. By the time we got to the front of the line, we decided to switch lines. And it paid off well for a decade up until 2022 pretty much.
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point. If you skip to, well, page 12 gives you a list of all the managers of a very well diversified portfolio, as I think you're well aware. Get into performance on page 14 in a little more detail. The fund was up 8 percent gross of fees. Again, a little bit behind the strategic model.
It drug us down enough to get us below that target. It put us right in the middle of the pack in that large public fund universe. If you go down the list, Westwood underperformed a little bit. They had a pretty big weighting in a couple of oil stocks, Exxon and Chevron, and that drug them down just a little bit below the target. And those have been pretty volatile stocks, energy stocks in general. You have great quarters, and then you have lousy. And that was, that one didn't work out for them well this quarter. Your indices, your index funds all match their benchmark. If you
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really was a rotation. That last six weeks, we saw a real strong rotation to lower quality, higher risk kind of names, especially in the small and mid cap stock area. And they have a pretty high quality portfolio, and that just caused them to lag their benchmark pretty substantially.
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I don't have any managers ‸ that I would consider on watch. Westwood had a difficult quarter, but the longer-term numbers are still okay there. They don't take a lot of risk, so anytime it's a risk, whether we call ‸ a risk-on trade, they're probably going to lag a little bit. If you go to page 22, these are your fiscal year returns going
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right now for where you stand. So really good start. Hope we can hang on to that. And then the last chart I'll cover with you is kind of, I call it the long-term report card on page 23. That on the top left, ‸ those are rolling five-year numbers. So you go back five years ago and you look back five years.
And then every quarter we do the same thing. Look back five years and say, how did the plan do relative to its benchmark, which is the triangle, and how did it do relative to the peer group, ‸ which is where it would rank in those kind of those various colors.
don't hold me to this, but I think it's about 1,100 plans in this universe across the country. And 75% of the time on a rolling five-year basis, you've been above average. So for, you know, a smaller plan to do that well relative, these are against multi-billion dollar plans. And, you know, so it's a, I think it's a good sign that you've been well diversified and weathered some storms pretty good.
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Yep. That's a good fit for those actually, um, capital one and discover don't go after the same clientele. So they, they, uh, I just, I haven't done a whole lot of research on
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they thought it would be a good merger and help them compete more against the American express and the visa and the master cards of the world. So, uh, ‸ probably
have no idea what the impact is going to be, but to stay competitive in that arena, you gotta be, you gotta be a big player to stay competitive in that arena. That's for sure. So, um, I guess
just. With the election coming up and it's just going to get nasty and nastier and nastier and accusations are going to fly. And it'll be a crazy year and what impact that has on the markets.
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Good afternoon, everyone. Just an update on a couple of items. As you know, we've been monitoring that forfeiture, potential forfeiture proceeding. We reached out and spoke to the assistant state attorney
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So depending upon, you know, if he pleases to a felony, we're just going to have to dig a little bit further and see if there were any weapons used that were provided by the city. If that's ‸ the case,
He was also wearing a bulletproof vest, and we are state attorneys looking into whether or not that was issued by the city as well. If that is the case, then that may be the link to his employment. We would need to proceed with
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any further information. But we'll give you a recommendation once the criminal case is concluded. So that's the update on that. I don't know if you have any questions. I'll pause for a second to see if you have any questions on that. Not hearing any. So yesterday, Sheila and I, we were on a phone conference with our cyber insurance liability provider. They had reached out to Sheila and Pat and said that they had become aware of some vulnerability with regard to
website. Now, we don't have a website. So it seems that they were talking about the city website. ‸ And I know that Pat had reached out to the city and they were not, they did not have any issues.
that, you know, it has nothing to do with us. And we don't know, we don't need to be concerned with anything else at this point in time. I don't know, Sheila, if you have anything to add there.
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We have the link in the memo to the website where you're going to have to go on and register, create a username, password, and then file the Form 1 online rather than filing it with the supervisor of elections in the county in which you live. So going forward, everything's going to be filed electronically. That includes the Form 1 and the Form 1F that you have to complete when you leave your position as a trustee, just so you're aware of that.
They said it's ‸ not very complicated and similar to what they had to do in writing in previous years. So you have some time to do it, but ‸ make sure you go online, register, and get it done in the next couple of weeks. Other than that, nothing further on the legal side to report unless you have any further questions.
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of payroll. And even if it was exactly 4% of payroll, again, if I would update the study, then the annual cost would be actually about the same. As I showed back then, that study showed $132,000 a year. Surprisingly, payroll's about the same now as it was three years ago.
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Flag: numbers, amounts, negation or names differ between the machine readings · 00:42:21–00:42:27 · unresolved: the words are not shown (unclear audio); listen to the recording
Flag: the recognizer flagged its own output; numbers, amounts, negation or names differ between the machine readings; a language review questioned the wording · 00:42:28–00:43:33 · unresolved: the words are not shown (unclear audio); listen to the recording
Flag: numbers, amounts, negation or names differ between the machine readings; the recognizer flagged its own output; the recognized words and the detected speech do not line up; a language review questioned the wording · 00:43:39–00:44:24 · unresolved: the words are not shown (unclear audio); listen to the recording
Yeah, I've also drafted a bunch of ordinances extending to aid for a bunch of police and fire plans as well around the state. So it seems like everybody's getting on board that train.
Flag: the recognized words and the detected speech do not line up · 00:44:39–00:44:42 · unresolved: the words are not shown (unclear audio); listen to the recording
Flag: numbers, amounts, negation or names differ between the machine readings; a language review questioned the wording · 00:44:43–00:44:51 · unresolved: the words are not shown (unclear audio); listen to the recording
Flag: the recognized words and the detected speech do not line up · 00:44:59–00:45:03 · unresolved: the words are not shown (unclear audio); listen to the recording
mean, I'm happy to do that or you could just give them my contact info and have them call me. You know, whatever. I'm here as a, you know, I'm here to provide any guidance that I can and any help. So.
Flag: numbers, amounts, negation or names differ between the machine readings; the recognizer flagged its own output; the recognized words and the detected speech do not line up; a language review questioned the wording · 00:45:33–00:45:58 · unresolved: the words are not shown (unclear audio); listen to the recording
Flag: numbers, amounts, negation or names differ between the machine readings; the recognizer flagged its own output; the recognized words and the detected speech do not line up · 00:46:11–00:47:00 · unresolved: the words are not shown (unclear audio); listen to the recording
Flag: numbers, amounts, negation or names differ between the machine readings; the recognizer flagged its own output · 00:47:00–00:47:01 · unresolved: the words are not shown (unclear audio); listen to the recording
Flag: numbers, amounts, negation or names differ between the machine readings; the recognizer flagged its own output; a language review questioned the wording · 00:48:18–00:48:58 · unresolved: the words are not shown (unclear audio); listen to the recording
Flag: numbers, amounts, negation or names differ between the machine readings; the recognizer flagged its own output; the recognized words and the detected speech do not line up; a language review questioned the wording · 00:49:39–00:51:34 · unresolved: the words are not shown (unclear audio); listen to the recording